This concern is rooted in historical patterns: Past Iranian protests (e.g., in 2009, 2019, and 2022) were often framed by Tehran as plots by Israel or the U.S., which helped the regime rally support and intensify repression. Netanyahu has reportedly instructed cabinet ministers to remain silent on the issue, limiting official comments to brief expressions of solidarity with protesters.
This “silence as strategy” aims to prevent escalation into a broader regional conflict, allowing internal dynamics—driven by economic collapse, inflation, and public disillusionment—to potentially destabilize the regime without external interference.
Analysts note that the current unrest is seen as unprecedented in scale, spanning all provinces and involving millions, which convinces some in Israel that the regime’s fall might occur organically without risking Israeli lives or resources.
Striking Iran could provoke retaliation against Israeli targets, U.S. bases in the region, or allies, potentially spiraling into a full-scale war—especially amid ongoing tensions from the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict.
Jerusalem is also wary of being drawn into a confrontation before completing its own military preparations, including rebuilding stockpiles depleted in recent conflicts (e.g., Gaza and Lebanon).
Furthermore, Israel’s military focus remains divided: It’s monitoring Hezbollah’s reconstitution in Lebanon and adhering to the November 2024 ceasefire, where any aggressive move could invite escalation.
Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy, has expressed verbal support for Tehran but avoided threats of action, prioritizing its own recovery over defending Iran militarily.
Former officials indicate Israel would only engage militarily if invited into a U.S.-led operation or in response to a direct Iranian attack.
This aligns with Netanyahu’s strategy of coordination with Washington, especially under the Trump administration, which has escalated rhetoric and sanctions but held off on strikes so far.Regional allies, like Gulf states, have also lobbied against U.S. or Israeli attacks due to fears of spillover effects on oil markets and stability.
Israel shares these concerns, prioritizing long-term regime change over short-term gains that could rally Iranians around their government.
